After an NBA season that had no shortage of excitement, we now head to an off-season that could be even bigger. Not even a week after the Raptors dethroned and possibly derailed the Warriors super team, a new dynasty is starting to form in LA with an absolute blockbuster of a trade that sent superstar Anthony Davis to LA to give Lebron possibly his best teammate yet. While the trade had huge implications on the NBA landscape next season, its most pressing impact was on tonight's NBA draft, with Pelicans receiving the Lakers 4th overall pick to go along with their first overall pick in part of their King’s (pun halfway intended) ransom for trading Anthony Davis. With that, the Pelicans, like the other teams picking in the top 15, will look to add a new “face of the franchise” type player, one that will eventually lead them to a championship like Steph Curry or Kawhi Leonard. But, that’s easier said than done. While most basketball heads can look at Ja Morant and Zion Williamson, the presumably 1 and 2 overall picks in this year’s draft, and see they’re special, there is one key attribute that these said b-ball heads tend to overlook, Efficiency. If you paid any attention to this exciting past season of the NBA, you’ve seen more and more teams beginning to embrace analytics and try to acquire players who are efficient. While Coaches like Steve Kerr and Mike D’Antoni pioneered this movement and became extremely successful because of it, we have seen coaches like Mike Budenholzer and this year’s ring winning head coach of the Raptors Nick Nurse become successful too because of their focus in efficiency. All of these coaches have studied analytics to help transform their key players like Steph Curry and Giannis Antetekuompo into efficient and unstoppable superstars. And in fact, if you go to TeamRankings.com and look at the league leaders in NBA Efficiency, you will see each of those coaches star players (James Harden, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, and Giannis Antetokounmpo) are the top four players in the league in that stat. Efficiency is the difference between a player like Steph Curry and a player like Russell Westbrook. While Russell Westbrook is flashy and stuffs the stat sheet with points, assists, and rebounds, he is extremely inefficient with his play, taking and missing a ton of shots and turning the ball over at a very high rate. On the other hand, Steph Curry may not stuff the stat sheet like Westbrook, he is extremely efficient and shoots a very high percentage from the floor while also taking care of the basketball (for the most part). Being efficient like Curry not only makes the players around you better but it leads to championships, as we’ve seen over the past couple of years. Because of this, I have decided to create my own draft big board, where I will be ranking the top NBA prospects based efficiency stats (Player Efficiency Rating, Win Shares and Box Plus Minus per game) and giving them a score based on those stats to see which players are truly helping their teams. I took ESPN’s top 30 big Board and rearranged them based on how they scored using the aforementioned stats. Here are the results: For reference: As prospects, Anthony Davis had the highest score for a big with 84.7, and Victor Oladipo had the highest score for a guard with 72. (These stats have only been available to the NCAA since the 2010-2011 season) (International players like Sekou Dumboya and Goga Bitztazde will be excluded) Big Men: Efficiency score: 94.3 With the highest player efficiency rating (40) and box +/- (+20 per game) ever recorded in the NCAA, Zion has proven he’s more than just a freak athlete. His basketball IQ is off the charts, as he showed in his short Duke career that he clearly understands his strengths and weaknesses as a player. And, much like the previous Efficiency Score record holder and (possibly) future teammate Anthony Davis, Zion had no problem sharing the spotlight with a team loaded with Five Star recruits. Let's just hope the Pelicans give Zion a better chance to succeed than they did Davis. NBA Comparison: Mixture of Charles Barkley and Lebron James Williamson's lack of court vision and pull up jump shot will forbid him from ever reaching the level of dominance that Lebron exuberates on the court, but former MVP and Hall of Famer Charles Barkley wasn’t too bad of player. 2. Brandon Clarke- Gonzaga Efficiency score: 89.8 While its no surprise to see Zion score so high, I couldn’t believe my eyes when I stumbled on the stat sheet of this Gonzaga forward. While Zion broke the records for the other two stats I’m computing, Clarke set a new record for win shares per 40 minutes and is now second place all-time behind Zion player efficiency (37.2) and box plus-minus (+19). While his game is nowhere near flashy as Zion, Clarke is a defensive juggernaut who led the nation in blocks at just 6 feet 8 inches and is a tenacious offensive rebounder (1st in his conference, 14th nationally) with a dominant low post game (Ranked 1st in the NCAA with a 137.9 Offensive Rating). In a murky draft field after Zion and Ja Morant, Clarke is the obvious next best option. NBA Comparison: Mixture of Draymond Green with Kevin Love: Imagine Draymond Green with a reliable offensive game. That's how much potential this kid has. If he falls outside of the top 10 or even top 5 of tonight's draft he will be considered a steal. 3. Bol Bol- Oregon Efficiency Score: 76 One of the most polarizing figures in this year’s draft, Bol Bol’s college career may have been short-lived, but you can’t deny his physical traits. Standing at 7’3 with the ball handling and shooting skills of a guard, Bol Bol is as unstoppable as they come. But, much like his father, injury concerns have caused him to fall out of the lottery in most mock drafts. Still, it will be hard for teams picking in the top ten to not take a chance on him in a draft that offers so little in terms of play making. NBA Comparision: Kristaps Porzingis Like Porzingis, Bol Bol has as much potential as any player in recent memory. But, as one of my favorite NBA writers Ben Golliver says, availability is the best ability and I’m not sure how available Bol Bol will be in his NBA career. 4. Grant Williams- Tennesse Efficiency Score: 70.5 One of the most improved players in the nation this year, Williams saw significant upticks in all Efficiency stats, leading to top ten rankings in Player Efficiency and Win Shares. A dominant force in the post, what Williams lacks in height at 6 foot 8 inches he makes up for in mass at 240 pounds. Because of this, unlike most undersized post players coming out of college, I believe his game will transfer considerably well. NBA Comparison: Taj Gibson I almost went with Paul Milsap, but Williams perimeter game needs to improve before he can become a consistent force like Milsap. But I’m sure teams picking in the lottery would love a player like Taj Gibson who was a vital player to the perennial contender Derrick Rose-led Bulls team in the early 2010s. 5. Rui Hachimura- Gonzaga Efficiency Score: 63 The second part of Gonzaga’s dynamic frontcourt duo with Brandon Clark, Hachimura is a very similar player to the aforementioned Grant Williams. Much like Williams, Hachimura is an undersized dominant post player. But, unlike Williams, he isn’t quite as girthy and could struggle with the physicality at the NBA level, especially on defense where he wasn’t so solid to begin with. (Gonzaga was just plus 2.9 points per game when he was on the floor defensively, compared to Tennesee’s plus 5.3 with Williams). Still, you can’t deny his skill on the offensive end (28.6 PER and a True Shooting Percentage of 64%), and I’m sure he won’t slide out of the lottery despite his size. NBA Comparison: Jabari Parker Hachimura’s face up post game is very similar to Parker’s game. His limitations on defense, unfortunately, remind me a lot of him too. 6. Jaxson Hayes- Texas Efficiency Score: 62 Finishing first in the NCAA in True Shooting Percentage and just outside the top 10 in Box Plus/Minus, Hayes has not surprisingly drawn considerable interest from teams picking in the lottery. He’s exactly you’re looking for in a modern-day Center; length, athleticism and sure hands around the rim. Like fellow Texas alumni Myles Turner, Jarret Allen, and Mo Bamba, Hayes should have no problem making the jump to the next level. NBA Comparison: Jarret Allen Not quite as offensively skilled as Myles Turner and not the shot blocker Mo Bamba is, Jarret Allen is the more appropriate comparison for the Texas big man. 7. Mfiondu Kabengele- Florida State Efficiency Score: 60.9 2nd in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) in Player Efficiency Rating and Win Shares, Kabengele was the anchor to Florida State’s suffocating defense that stifled almost every opponent they faced (besides Gonzaga and Duke). Coming from a very team-oriented system, the Canadian big man plenty of interest from contenders picking in the late 20s who are looking to sure up their front line. NBA Comparison: Mason Plumlee Like Plumlee, Kabengele should provide solid minutes off the bench on defense and become a threat in the pick-and-roll on offense. 8. Bruno Fernando- Maryland Efficiency Score: 60 One of the most well-rounded big men in the draft, Fernando was a 2-way stud for the Terrapins, ranking in the top 10 in the Big 12 Conference in Offensive and Defensive Rating. At 6-10 240 pounds, Fernando bullies opposing big men on the block and is surprisingly athletic for his size. Like Hayes and Kabengele, he should be a great option for teams picking in the late first round that are in need of a solid 2-way big man. NBA Comparison: Montrezl Harrell Like Harrell, Fernando is physically imposing and a beast in the pick-and-roll. He should excel if he is paired with a good play making PG like Harrell is with Lou Williams. 9. PJ Washington- Kentucky Efficiency Score: 59 Much like Fernando, Washington was a 2-way star for his school and go-to player on offense, ranking inside the top 5 in the SEC in Offensive and Defensive rating. But, unlike Harrell, Washington lacks athleticism and mainly gets his points with his back to the basket. At 6-8 220 pounds, Washington must expand upon his offensive game if he wants to succeed at the next level. NBA Comparison: Frank Kaminsky or every other undersized post player to come out of college Undersize and underweight at the NBA level, Washington looks like the next in line of small big men who excelled in college but faded out in the NBA 10. Chuma Okeke- Auburn Efficiency Score: 57 Although he suffered a disappointing end to his college career by tearing his ACL in the NCAA tournament, Okeke’s future is as bright as anyone on this board. While he’s almost the same size as Washington (6-8 230 pounds), Okeke is far more athletic and, like of most of his teammates at Auburn, is a knockdown 3pt shooter, hitting at almost a 40% clip. He’s also a stud defensively, ranking 2nd in the SEC in Defensive Win Shares. Okeke is one of the rare 3 and D bigs to come out of the draft in the last couple of years and should be a hot commodity for teams like the Rockets and the Warriors who play that kind of style. NBA Comparison: P.J Tucker As a Warriors fan, I know far too well how deadly a player like P.J Tucker can be, so I’ll be praying to the basketball gods the Warriors snag him before the Rockets do. Guards and Wings:
Efficiency Score: 74.8 NBA Comparison: Jason Kidd with Russell Westbrook’s athletic ability: 2. Dylan Windler Efficiency Score: 66.1 NBA Comparison: Michael Redd 3. Cameron Johnson Efficiency Score: 61 NBA Comparison: Trevor Ariza 4. DeAndre Hunter Efficiency Score: 59 NBA Comparison: Dwight Powell 5. Jarrett Culver Efficiency Score: 58 NBA Comparison: Nate McMillian 6. Ty Jerome Efficiency Score: 57 NBA Comparison: Malcom Brogdon 7. Shamorie Ponds Efficiency Score: 56 NBA Comparison: Fred VanFleet 8. Keldon Johnson Efficiency Score: 52 NBA Comparison: Jeremy Lamb 9. Kyle Guy Efficiency Score: 50.6 NBA Comparison: Steve Kerr 10. RJ Barrett Efficiency Score: 50 NBA Comparison: Jalen Rose 11. Nickeil Alexander Walker Efficiency Score: 49.3 NBA Comparison: Delon Wright 12. Tyler Herro Efficiency Score: 46 NBA Comparison: Joe Harris 13. Carsen Edwards Efficiency Score: 46 NBA Comparison: Patty Mills 14. Coby White Efficiency Score: 43 NBA Comparison: DJ Augustin 15. Darius Garland Efficiency Score: 43 NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell Pope 16. Romeo Langford Efficiency Score: 40 NBA Comparison: Reggie Jackson 17. Nasir Little Efficiency Score: 39.6 NBA Comparison: Otto Porter 18. KZ Okpala Efficiency Score: 32.7 NBA Comparison: Dorian Finney-Smith 19. Kevin Porter Jr. Efficiency Score: 29.6 NBA Comparison: Rodney Hood 20. Cam reddish Efficiency Score: 29 NBA Comparison: Caris Levert
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It’s the most wonderful time of the year (at least for basketball fans). Yes, March Madness is here, and as I write, millions of people are filling brackets out with hopes of winning whatever office pool or friend league they are in. While everyone has different strategies, one would think the people who watch the most basketball or have the most basketball knowledge would win every time. Well, if you’ve ever competed in a bracket league before, you know that is far from the truth. Every year no matter how many articles you read from college basketball experts or how many games you watch during the regular season, Jessica from accounting who couldn't name a single player in the tournament wins the whole thing. So this year, for the sake of basketball diehards, I decided to make a bracket where instead of picking the teams who are projected to win, I picked the teams whose style of play is the most aesthetically pleasing, using my College Basketball Watchability Index. There have been countless times, and I’m sure I’m not the only one to experience this, where I pick a team with a boring style of play to go far in the tournament because they’ve been successful (i.e Cincinnati, Virginia), only to find myself rooting for the double-digit seed underdog playing them because of how fun they are to watch (i.e Florida Gulf Coast, Loyola Chicago). Sports are about entertainment, and while undoubtedly defense wins championships, no one wants to see final four games where teams are failing to score 50 points in 40 minutes of playing time. So, for all the fans out there who just want to see good basketball this March, here is Max’s Watchability Index Bracket. (For info about MWI, click here: https://fanalysis.weebly.com/blog/december-12th-2018) Most Watchable Teams: North Carolina: Ranking inside the top ten in both Pace of Play and Assists Per Field Goals Made, Roy Williams' style very closely resembles the Run TMC Warriors that were so fun to watch in the early 90s (minus the horrid defense). The Tar Heels are always a joy to watch and should be playing late into the tournament. Michigan State: The number one passing team in the nation now three years in a row, here's hoping Tom Izzo's squad can at least make it to the second weekend this time so we can see more of the beautiful basketball his team exhibits. Virginia Tech: Maybe the most complete team in the nation besides it's in-state rival Virginia, the only Watchability stat that Tech doesn't rank inside the top 30 in the nation is Pace of Play, which they rank inside the bottom 50 due to their elite defense. Buzz Williams' squad will be a tough out this March. Buffalo: Fast and efficient is two words many people use to describe Steve Kerr's Golden State Warriors. The same also goes for Nate Oat's Buffalo Bulls. Ranking 16th in Offensive Efficiency and 12th in Pace of Play, this might be my favorite team in this year's tournament, and maybe ever. Marquette: Shooting almost 40 percent from three while ranking inside the top 100 in three point attempts, this team loves to pull it from deep, and I love them because of it. Not to mention they rank inside the top 100 in both offensive efficiency and pace of play. Nevada: Top 20 in Offensive efficiency, the Martin brothers may be the most entertaining duo in college basketball. Auburn: With an astounding 43% percent of their points coming from the three, Bruce Pearl's Seven Seconds or Less offense is one of the more fun to watch in the nation. Honorable Mentions: Iowa State: Top 20 in both efficiency categories but just average in APFGM and PoP from three. and bottom 100 in Pace of Play. Wofford: While 40 percent of their points come from three and are elite in efficiency, they are bottom 100 in APFGM Villanova: Even though they're not nearly as fast and efficient as their last two championship squads, the Cats still rank inside top 50 in APFGM and ninth in Pace of Play. And with Jay Wright still at the helm, they should be on every team's radar. Least Watchable Teams: Cincinnati: Inside the bottom 100 in Effective Field Goal Percentage, Pace of Play and PoP from three, Mick Cronin is one of the many control freak coaches that make the sport unwatchable. Wisconsin: Even though the Bo Ryan era is long gone, his replacement Greg Gard has made sure to produce the same mind numbingly boring style of basketball, ranking inside the bottom 100 in APFGM and Pace of Play. Syracuse: With PoP from three being the only stat they rank inside the top half of the nation in, Jim Boeheim is the Grand Master of the Control Freak Coaches Clan. Kentucky: Nothing against coach Calipari, who usually has had to change his usual run and gun offense to a post centric one because of personnel, but that will always earn you a low ranking in my index. Kansas State: Efficiency is a concept Control Freak Coach Bruce Weber has yet to grasp. ranking inside the bottom 100 in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, the Wildcat's offense is not much different than the offense you see at your average pick up game at the YMCA. Michigan: John Beilein and Jim Boeheim have similar sounding names, don't they? Well they also have similarly shitty offenses. The only stat that the Wolverines rank inside the top 100 in is offensive efficiency, and they play at one of he slowest paces in the league, 13th slowest to be exact. Florida State: The Seminoles rely on their outstanding length (no starter is under 6'6) to disrupt offenses and muck up the game as much as possible. It's an effective strategy, but it sure isn't a watchable one. Dishonorable Mentions: Minnesota: They shoot the fourth fewest threes in the nation, and are also bottom 50 in Effective Field Goal percentage. Not for me. Kansas: The poor Jayhawks' one promising season has been derailed by injuries, making an already borderline watchable team unwatchable. Washington: Their Head Coach Mike Hopkins was an assistant under Jim Boeheim for 20 years. That tell you all you need to know. Watchable Sleepers: Belmont: Rick Byrd might be my favorite coach in all of College Basketball. Despite the fact fact that he started coaching in 1986, he has adjusted to the times and has his Bruins playing the most NBA like style of basketball in the tournament, ranking inside the top 50 in every single Watchability category. Yale: If it wasn't for his teams lack of three point shooting, head coach James Jones would be one of my favorite coaches too. Still his team ranks inside the top 50 in both APFGM and offensive efficiency and will be easy to root for against ISO heavy LSU in the first round. Northeastern: While their rating is hurt by their bottom 50 ranking in Pace of Play, they are solid in every other category and elite in the efficiency categories, as they rank fifth in Effective Field Goal percentage and 13th in Offensive Efficiency. Northern Kentucky: Fifth in the nation is APFGM, i'll be praying for an upset against Texas Tech so I can see more of that beautiful teamwork. Murray State: Forget the fact that they have one of the most explosive guards in recent memory. Head Coach Matt McMahon makes sure his squad shares the ball (38th in APFGM), leading to their top ten ranking in offensive efficiency. Just wish they weren't playing Marquette.
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AuthorAvid sports fan who loves writing. Basketball will be main topic of focus Blog Posts
June 2019
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